Description: This presentation defines the risks in the context of pension plans and reviews their relationship. From 2000 ARCH, Quebec City, Canada., January 2000.

Description: This paper points out errors in the Graetz Prepayment Analysis used to determine tax liability for mutual companies. Those errors result in an understatement of the tax burden borne by mutual life insurance companies. The Graetz prepayment analysis was advanced as a justification for repealing Section 809 of the Internal Revenue Code. Correcting the errors in the Graetz prepayment analysis strengthens the argument for repeal.

Description: This paper explores the relationship between the Wealth Transfer Index, a statistic defined by Brown and Bilodeau 1997, and retirement age, which is the age at which the workers in an economy cease to be economically productive. There appears to be a strong positive correlation between the Wealth transfer Index and retirement age based on Canadian historical data.

Description: A serious problem facing the actuary when his or her company converts to on line transactions processing is that of how to minimize human errors. This paper explains how the availability of the various reserve and cash value factor files in an on line environment permit better checking than has been possible in the past.

Description: This is the agenda for the 31st Annual Actuarial Research Conference held in Muncie, IN, August 15-17, 1996.

Description: This paper provides an outline of the pricing methodology used by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Virginia which incorporates trend analysis by trend component. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: In this paper the authors analyze data from group medical expense insurance claims and show that many insurance loss distributions have very 'heavy tails' because large losses represent a disproportionate fraction of the total cost. They also present a simple model to reproduce and explain the large loss behavior. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This paper proposes a model for the incurred but not reported - IBNR- claims of an insurance company. This model will be fit to third party automobile bodily injury claims for which the months and years of occurrence of the accident are available. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 VOL. 1